Overview
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Scorecard: every forecast, graded
Every forecast the pipeline makes is logged with origin, horizon, central value, 80% band (from past out-of-sample errors at that horizon) and the naive benchmark (random walk = no change). Backtest rows are walk-forward origins the fit never saw; live rows are made at the latest CBS month and stay open until the target month is published, then graded. A wrong call reported as wrong is worth more than a vague one. Direction hit rate, skill (1 − MAE/MAE_naive) and band coverage are the three numbers that judge the model — not us.
Direction hit rate by group (backtest; n in hover)
Skill vs naive by group (positive = beats no-change)
Open live forecasts
| Group | h (m) | Origin | Origin value | Target | Forecast | Band low | Band high | Call | Made on | Method |
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Graded forecasts (latest 200 of the log)
| Group | Kind | h | Origin | Target | Forecast | Actual | Error % | Naive error % | Call | Hit | In band |
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Material appraisal calculator
Enter quantities per category (coarse) or per product (granular)
Value = quantity × unit price (observed DIY counter price ex VAT where one was scraped; otherwise enter your own — contract, EXW or quote). Embodied carbon from the EPD table (A1–A3), priced at the EUA you set and at the Dutch MPG shadow price (€116/t). End-of-life = gate fee or scrap credit per tonne at 2026 tariffs (negative = credit). All factors are editable in the row; the sources sit on the Embodied carbon, Logistics & EoL and Observed prices pages.
Building appraisal: what is in a building, what it is worth, what is due
Enter a building. Mass per material comes from floor area × material intensity for its type and construction period (Sprecher et al. 2022 NL demolition database; EIB 2020 totals; global proxies for apartments). New-equivalent value uses observed new prices per tonne; recovery value is what the material fetches at end of life after gate fees (scrap, reclaimed brick and timber credits; gypsum and glass cost money), scaled by the harvest yield and quality retention from the reuse-cycle table where available (otherwise full recovery, flagged). Embodied carbon from the EPD table. The components-due list comes from the lifecycle page: service life against construction year.
Mass by material (t)
New-equivalent value vs recovery value (€)
| Material | kg/m² | Intensity status | Mass t | New value €/t | New value € | Harvest yield % | Quality retained | Recovery €/t | Recovery € | kg CO₂e/kg | Embodied t CO₂e | Sources |
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Components at or past service life (from the lifecycle table)
| Component | Service life low–high (y) | Age (y) | Status | Degradation | Reuse potential |
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Price indices by material group (producer and input prices, 1990 – 2026)
CBS and Eurostat price indices, Netherlands
CBS 80444ned materials / labour / total input cost from 1990-01 (2000 = 100); CBS 85771NED producer prices by SBI, domestic sales, from 2018-01 (2021 = 100); Eurostat sts_inpp_m by NACE from 2018 (2021 = 100). Toggle series; TTF gas as overlay on the right axis.
Supply chains and cost composition
Flow diagrams (Sankey)
Physical flows in kt/Mt per year and price build-ups as shares of the end price. Solid = verified figure; hatched = assumption or split estimate. Hover a band for value, status and source.
| From | To | Value | Unit | Status | Source / basis |
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Cost drivers
TTF gas (€/MWh) and EUA carbon (€/t), monthly
EUA monthly values are linearly interpolated from annual averages (EEA/EEX) until the EEX auction archive is loaded locally.
EUA annual averages 2008–2026 and the Dutch CO₂ levy
The Dutch levy only bites when the EUA price is below the tariff (wedge = tariff − EUA). Flat €78.67 for 2026–2030.
Energy and fuel costs
Delivered industrial energy prices, Netherlands (excl. taxes and levies)
What a plant actually pays, by annual consumption band — network and supply costs included, taxes excluded. Half-yearly. A brickworks or ready-mix plant sits in the 10,000–99,999 GJ band; glass, gypsum and insulation plants around 100,000–999,999 GJ; cement grinding and large kilns in 1–4 mln GJ.
Fuel and carbon benchmarks
Hub and commodity prices that lead the delivered prices on the left: TTF (gas hub), Brent (diesel and naphtha/resin feedstock), EUA (carbon), NL diesel pump price (CBS, incl. taxes) and NL day-ahead power (SMARD/ENTSO-E). First selected series on the left axis, the rest on the right.
Energy price by band, latest half-year versus 2021
| Carrier | Consumption band | Latest | €/MWh latest | €/MWh 2021 avg | Δ vs 2021 | Peak €/MWh | Peak half-year |
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Energy cost per tonne of product
Specific energy consumption (thermal GJ/t and electricity kWh/t, from EU BREFs, sector bodies and PBL/TNO MIDDEN plant studies) × the delivered Dutch industrial price for the band a typical plant buys in. Latest half-year versus the 2021 average. Energy cost share of production cost where published.
| Material | GJ/t thermal | Fuel | kWh/t elec. | €/t energy 2021 | €/t energy latest | Energy share of cost % | Status | Intensity source | URL |
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Standardized instruments: futures, spot, assessments and indices
Ticker: CBS producer-price index (2021 = 100) with change versus twelve months earlier; market quote (snapshot 23–27 Oct 2026) with the year-on-year change of its monthly driver series where one is loaded; NL dwelling stock (Mt) with the latest year's inflow (new build) and outflow (demolition). Hover to pause.
Instrument map
Exchange contracts, physical benchmarks, published assessments and indices that lead Dutch delivered prices, with contract specification, the NL material groups they lead and the typical lead time, and the latest public quote where one could be read (date shown). Monthly histories of TTF, Brent, EUA, metals, ore, sawnwood and FX are on the Drivers and Energy pages.
| Group | Instrument | Type | Venue / publisher | Code | Unit | Ccy | Settlement | Leads (NL) | Latest | Date | Price type | Access | Status | Data | Note |
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Trading volume, open interest and depth relative to the physical market
Average daily volume and annual volume (contracts and physical units), open interest, notional traded per year, and the ratio of paper volume to the size of the underlying physical market — the liquidity grade says whether a Dutch material exposure can be hedged in it. Exchange monthly reports; derived figures are marked.
Annual physical volume traded (log scale, latest year)
Paper-to-physical ratio (annual volume ÷ market size)
| Instrument | Venue | Contract | ADV contracts | ADV physical | Unit | Period | Annual contracts | Year | Prev. year | Annual physical | Unit | Notional €/yr | Open interest | OI date | Physical market | Unit | Paper/physical × | Liquidity | Why | Status | Source |
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Price decomposition: what explains the index?
Elasticities by material group
log-OLS: ln(P) = a + b·ln(TTF, lagged 6 months) + c·ln(EUA, lagged 3 months). b = 0.25 means: gas +10% → price +2.5%.
Model quality and backtest
Trained through Dec 2024, tested on 2025–2026. MAPE = mean absolute percentage error out of sample.
| Group | Δ since 2021 % | b TTF | c EUA | R² | MAPE % | seasonal amp. % |
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Driver model: what moved each material group, 2021 → latest
Contribution to the price change since 2021 (percentage points of log change)
Asymmetric error-correction model per CBS group on regime-specific inputs (gas, CO₂, Brent as diesel/naphtha proxy, iron ore, LME metals in €, sawnwood, EUR/USD), wages at a fixed labour share of 0.20, and a 2022 step dummy that measures the level shift producers kept after the energy shock. The grey remainder is what none of these explain.
Pass-through up versus down, lead time and Granger test
θ = long-run elasticity; β⁺ / β⁻ = short-run pass-through of driver rises / falls (asymmetry p-value tests β⁺ = β⁻); Granger p < 0.05 means the driver's past returns improve the forecast of the price's returns beyond its own history (3 lags).
| Group | Driver | Lead (m) | θ long run | p | β⁺ up | β⁻ down | asym. p | Granger p |
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Rolling 36-month elasticities (regime break detection)
Long-run elasticities re-estimated on a 36-month window stepping 6 months. A jump around 2022 is the regime change: the same gas move no longer maps to the same price move.
Retained shock, adjustment speed and walk-forward skill
Retained shock = permanent level shift measured by the 2022 dummy. Half-life = months for half of a deviation from the long-run relation to close. Walk-forward: expanding window, 3-month-ahead conditional forecasts (actual driver paths), MAE in log-% versus a random walk; skill = 1 − MAE_model / MAE_RW (positive beats naive); hit rate = share of correct 3-month direction calls; DM p = Diebold–Mariano significance of the MAE difference. Negative skill means the naive forecast is better — published as such.
| Group | Regime | Δ 2021→ | Retained shock | Unexplained pp | Half-life (m) | R² LR | MAE model % | MAE naive % | Skill | Hit rate | DM p |
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Seasonality: price versus volume
Deviation from trend by calendar month (%)
Price series: STL-style decomposition of the PPI. Volume: CBS construction turnover index SBI 41, unadjusted (August bouwvak dip, January dip).
Regional advantage: distance to source
Freight advantage by province (€/t vs NL average)
Province fill = modelled freight advantage versus the national average for the selected material (green = closer to a plant/quarry). Diamonds = source locations (draft, town-level coordinates — verify). Boundaries: CBS/PDOK 2025 via cartomap.
Distance and freight component by province
Model: straight-line × 1.3 road factor × freight prior per tonne-km (tipper 0.12; tanker 0.14; flatbed 0.10 €).
| Province | km | Nearest source | freight €/t | advantage €/t |
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Stakeholders: who makes, moves, sells and recovers the materials
Map of the chain
Organisations by stage of the supply chain, the materials they handle, and whether they run on virgin feedstock, secondary (recovered) material, or both. Volumes are as published by the organisation or its association; status marks what was read on a source page (verified) versus derived (estimate) or borrowed from a parent or sector figure (proxy).
Bars: published revenue (EUR mln, year in brackets; group or NL as noted in the hover) for the selected categories — tonnage volumes per company are not published and come from the sector series on the Volumes page.
| Organisation | Category | Sub | Materials | Feedstock | Secondary % | NL volume | Unit | Year | Plants NL | HQ | Ownership | Market note | Certifications | Status | Source | Note |
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Material stock in the built environment per province, with yearly inflow and outflow
Model: dwelling floor area by construction-period class per province (CBS 82550NED, 1 Jan 2026) × material intensity per m² by cohort (Sprecher et al. 2022 NL demolition database for 1945–1970, used as period proxy for older and 1971–1990 cohorts; later cohorts scale the same split to EIB new-build totals). Inflow = completions × mean m² of the newest class × new-build intensity; outflow = demolitions × mean m² of the 1945–75 classes × their intensity (demolition is dominated by that cohort — stated assumption). Roads: km × national asphalt stock per km; rail: route-km × per-track-km (lower bound). Non-residential floor area is not published by CBS, so its mass is left open pending a BAG 2.0 extract.
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Stock in dwellings, Mt (2026)
Inflow (new build) and outflow (demolition), kt
| Province | Asset | Material | Year | Stock t | Inflow t | Outflow t | Basis | Status | Source |
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Market value: what the material stock and its yearly in- and outflow are worth, in EUR, with bandwidths
EUR = tonnes (stock & flows model, six structural materials in dwellings plus road asphalt) × a dated price per tonne. Two bases, never mixed: replacement = what the same tonnes cost new today (band from observed price tiers: low quote / midpoint / high quote or incl. VAT); recovery = what the holder gets or pays at end of life today (low = worst legal route such as landfill with afvalstoffenbelasting, central = dominant route such as the rubble gate fee or scrap price, high = best reuse route such as reclaimed brick, beams or sections — asking prices before dismantling cost and harvest-yield loss). Replacement is the meaningful basis for stock and inflow (materials bought for new build); recovery is the meaningful one for outflow (demolition). Bands are not confidence intervals: they are the spread of observed prices and routes on 2026-10-27. Cross-check: ≈70k completions × ≈€100k build cost × 52% materials ≈ €3.6 bn/yr of all materials into new dwellings; the six structural materials here give €1.9–2.7 bn (central €2.3 bn) for 2025 — insulation, installations, finishes and glass frames are outside the six.
By material: low / central / high (€ bn)
Map: central estimate
Regions ranked (central, with band in hover)
Price bands used (€ per tonne, ex VAT unless stated)
| Material | Basis | Low | Central | High | Low route | Central route | High route | Status | Source | Note |
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| Level | Region | Asset | Material | Item | Year | Tonnes | Basis | € low | € central | € high | €/t central | Tonnes status | Price status |
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Market volumes and trends by segment
Annual volumes: housing, non-residential, renovation, infrastructure, grids, demolition
Pick a segment and metric. Values are as published by the source (CBS, EIB, Rijkswaterstaat, TenneT, Netbeheer Nederland); forecasts are marked. Materials pulled per segment are listed in the research note.
| Segment | Metric | Year | Value | Unit | Status | Source | URL |
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Embodied carbon per material (A1–A3, cradle to gate)
kg CO₂e per kg of product
Comparable across materials. Timber shown without biogenic storage (see note for the with-storage figure). Status: verified = read on the EPD/NMD page; estimate = converted from a per-kg factor with a stated mass; proxy = other product or region.
Direct carbon cost at EUA €80/t
Only materials inside the EU ETS carry a direct allowance cost (cement, lime, steel, glass, bricks/ceramics); others pay it indirectly through inputs. Per functional unit of the SKU.
| Category | Material | Unit | kg CO₂e / unit | kg CO₂e / kg | kg / unit | Scope | Status | Source | Year | URL | ETS cost €/unit @€80 | Basis | Note |
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Carbon in context: building-materials emissions against country, province, municipality and installation totals
Four source families kept on their own basis and never averaged: CBS/RIVM Klimaatwet sectors (IPCC, territorial, incl. LULUCF) for the national total; CBS milieurekeningen 83300NED (residents principle) for SBI 16/22/23/24/F/49; RVO Regionale Klimaatmonitor bronbenadering for provinces and municipalities; Emissieregistratie e-MJV facility rows for 55 installations (2019–2024). Territorial production of building materials inside NL is small — SBI 23 is 0.67% of Dutch-economy CO₂ and the 44 listed building-materials plants sum to 0.93 Mt — because clinker, rebar, sections, flat glass and insulation chemicals are imported since ENCI closed; the consumption-based materiaalgebonden CO₂ of Dutch construction (EIB/Metabolic, ref. 2019) is 14.3 Mt, ≈7.7% of the 2019 territorial total (mixed bases, indicative). Tata Steel is the one large domestic item: 5.9 Mt own stacks = 51% of Velsen, 28% of Noord-Holland, 4.1% of NL. Suppressed Klimaatmonitor cells (Utrecht and Zeeland 2024; Amsterdam, Eemsdelta, Moerdijk in some years) stay empty.
Share ladder, 2024: building-materials chain as % of its reference total
NL sector CO₂ by SBI, 2019–2025 (Mt, CBS 83300NED; 2025 preliminary)
Map: province or municipality
Installations, verified CO₂ (kt, Emissieregistratie e-MJV)
| Level | Region | Code | Sector / installation | Material group | Year | Value | Unit | Metric | Status | Source | URL | Note |
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Demolition, deconstruction and disassembly costs
Cost benchmarks (point value or range midpoint)
Conventional demolition versus circular/selective deconstruction per m² or m³; per-material disassembly and processing unit costs; machine and labour rates; gate fees by fraction. Status: verified = number read on the source page.
How the circular case closes
Circular deconstruction costs more labour and time than mechanical demolition; the case closes through harvested-material credits (bricks, steel, timber, sanitary), avoided gate fees and MPG/MKI credits on the next building. The table shows the published components; the research note walks through the arithmetic.
| Category | Item | Building type | Unit | Low | High | Point | Year | Status | Provider | URL | Note |
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Lifecycle: service life, degradation, warranties and certification
Technical service life (years, low–high)
Reference service life from NMD/SBK levensduurtabellen, ISO 15686 factor tables and producer EPDs. Bars show the range; the warranty horizon is the shorter, commercial promise.
Producer warranty horizon (years)
What the manufacturer guarantees, versus the 10-year Woningborg/SWK and Wkb regime for the building as a whole.
| Category | Material | Life low | Life high | Degradation | Profile | Condition std | Warranty y | Certifications | EN standard | Price effect | Reuse | Status | URL |
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Degradation in use, quality loss per reuse and recycling cycle, and what happens to guarantees
Per material: measurable performance loss while in service (aged lambda, carbonation, corrosion class, seal failure), what survives a reuse cycle (harvest yield, property retention, achievable cycles, re-certification route), what survives material recycling (property retention, recycled-content limits, contamination), and the warranty / CE-DoP / certification / liability position of a reused product under CPR 2024/3110, Bbl and the Wkb. Price versus new where quoted.
| Category | Material | In-use degradation | Rate | Unit | Standard / test | Harvest yield % | Quality after reuse | Reuse cycles | Re-certification | Recycling: property retention | Recycled content limit % | Recycle cycles | Contamination limit | Warranty on reuse | CE / DoP on reuse | Scheme | Liability | MPG / NMD | Price vs new % | Status | Source | Note |
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Value ladder: reuse, recycling, downcycling and what it costs to get there
For each material, every end-of-life route is priced the same way: what the recovered material fetches (€/t, as a share of the new-product price), minus the cost chain to reach that route (dismantling, sorting and cleaning, transport, processing, testing and certification, storage, marketplace take), plus the gate fee avoided versus the mixed skip and the NMD set-A2 shadow-price credit on CO₂e (€0.116/kg, in force 1 July 2026). Net margin is the cash result per tonne; the break-even note states the carbon or waste-tax price that would flip a negative route. Routes without a fetched price are kept in the table as missing so the gap is visible rather than averaged away. Yield losses per reuse cycle (lifecycle page) are not applied here because the matching gross-tonne dismantling cost is missing for every material.
Net margin per tonne by route (€/t; value + gate fee avoided + MKI credit − cost chain)
Recovered value as % of new-product price
Cost chain to reach each route (€/t; credits positive, costs negative, label = net margin)
| Category | Material | Route | Value €/t | New €/t | % of new | Dismantling | Sorting | Transport | Processing | Testing | Storage | Marketplace | Gate fee avoided | MKI credit | Net margin €/t | Break-even | Subsidy | NL t/y | Year | Status | Source | URL | Value note | Note |
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Freight: building materials against all traffic on road, water, rail and sea
Commodity basis is NST 2007, the only classification shared by all modes: nst03 sand/gravel/clay/stone and iron ore (not separable outside inland waterways), nst09 cement/lime/plaster, glass/ceramics/bricks, concrete, nst10 basic and fabricated metals, nst06 wood/paper; the core aggregate is 03+09+10+06. nst14 (C&D waste and scrap), nst07 (bitumen inside petroleum) and nst08 (PVC inside chemicals) are shown but excluded from the aggregate because non-construction content dominates. Frameworks differ by mode — road = NL-registered lorries anywhere (Eurostat road_go_ta_tg), inland waterway = any vessel on NL territory incl. transit (iww_go_atygo), rail = NL network (rail_go_grpgood), sea = main-port handling (mar_mg_am_cwhg) — so cross-mode splits are indicative; CBS 83101NED gives the one consistent all-mode denominator. CO₂ rows are derived: tonne-km × CO2emissiefactoren.nl WTW factors (lorry >20 t 0.110, Rhine vessel 0.030, train 0.012 kg/tkm).
Share of each mode's tonnes by commodity group, 2024 (%)
Core building materials (03+09+10+06): share of mode tonnes over time (%)
Where the building-material tonnes travel: road vs water vs rail (indicative, Eurostat frameworks)
Road, loaded in province, domestic, 2024: core building materials (Mt, Eurostat road_go_na_rl3g)
| Mode | Scope | Region | Year | Metric | Value | Unit | Status | Source | URL | Note |
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Materials in the construction bill: relative cost and pass-through
Cost composition by building type
Materials versus labour, equipment, subcontracting and overhead/profit as shares of construction cost, per building type, as published (CBS input-index weights, EIB, Bouwkostenkompas/IGG, Rijkswaterstaat SSK).
Element and material-category shares
Pick a building type: element groups (NL-SfB) and the ten material categories of this dashboard as shares of construction cost, with the dominant materials per element.
What a price move in one material category does to construction cost
Pass-through = category share of total input cost × price change. Dwelling category shares are published as shares of the material basket (CBS 2021=100 weighting scheme) and are multiplied by the materials share of the CBS input index (52%); GWW shares are already on total input cost. Times the CBS producer-price change since 2021 gives each category's contribution to input-cost inflation; the last column is the effect of a further +10% in that category alone. Installations, finishes and metal windows are shown with their nearest CBS series or unmapped.
| Building type | Material category | Basis | Share of input cost % | PPI Δ since 2021 % | Contribution to cost % | Effect of +10 % in category | PPI series used |
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| Building type | Level | Item | Share % | €/m² | Quantity | Unit | Dominant materials | Year | Status | Source | URL | Note |
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Observed counter prices and manufacturer price actions
Cement at the counter: observed vs implied
Bags of 25 kg normalised to €/t incl. VAT. The implied chain (EXW €150/t through verified margins) lands inside the observed range — the margin stack reconciles for a commodity.
Where prices can be scraped
Consumer sites expose prices (Hubo even a JSON API); every trade site is JS- or login-gated, so wholesale DAP needs a headless browser on a residential IP or supplier quotes.
| Seller | Basis | Public | API / structured | Branch dependence | Note |
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Observed prices, 2026-10-27 (phase-1 reference SKUs)
As shown on the page and normalised to the SKU's canonical unit. Volume tiers seen: cement pallet −5.5%, insulation 48+ rolls −10%, PVC 86+ −10%.
| Product | Seller | Price | Sold unit | Canonical | incl. VAT | ex VAT | Note | Source |
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Manufacturer price actions 2022–2027
Dated increases and surcharges as relayed by a wholesaler (Bouwcenter) and from producer price lists. Two waves: the 2022–23 gas shock (bricks +12–35%, plasterboard +25%, sand-lime +24%) and the 2026 wave (PIR +15%, XPS +9%, PE pipe +12–30%, Xella +12% from 2027).
| Manufacturer | Category | Effective | Change | Stated reason | Status | Source |
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Margins by stage of the supply chain
Reported margins by stage (%)
Green = verified from annual report/CBS; orange = assumption. Gross margin on selling price; markup on cost = m/(1−m).
Implied price chain: cement (€/t, ex VAT)
EXW €150 → wholesale (heavy-side 14%) → contractor (5% project discount) → DIY store (40% gross margin, CBS 4752) → counter incl. 21% VAT.
| Stage | €/t | €/bag 25 kg | cumulative × |
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All margin observations
| Stage | Entity | Metric | % | Year | Scope | Status | Source |
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Carbon market and pass-through
Free allocation, CBAM sectors: law vs proposal (%)
Cement, steel, aluminium. Law: 97.5% (2026) → 0% (2034). Proposal COM(2026)616: slower, 15% through 2037. ETS2 starts 2028.
Carbon cost per tonne of product
cost = intensity × EUA × (1 − free share). Benchmarks: IR (EU) 2026/1412.
| Product | t CO₂/t | benchmark | CBAM | full cost @ €85 | paid 2026 | 2030 (law) | 2034 (law) |
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Carbon market volumes: auctions, secondary trading, open interest
EU ETS primary auctions (allowances auctioned per year, clearing prices, cover ratios), ICE and EEX secondary volumes (daily and yearly, in contracts and Mt CO₂), open interest, total market turnover, UK ETS, CBAM certificates (sales start February 2027) and the voluntary market as context. The cap, free allocation and MSR intake give the physical scale the paper volume is traded against.
| Market | Instrument | Venue | Metric | Period | Value | Unit | Status | Source | Note |
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Import and export tariffs, trade defence and restrictions
Measures in force by product
MFN customs duties by CN code, EU anti-dumping and countervailing duties, the steel safeguard quota regime, CBAM (definitive from 2026), sanctions, export restrictions (waste-shipment rules for scrap), non-tariff conditions (CE/CPR, EUDR, Bbk, nitrogen permits) and partner-country tariffs on Dutch exports. Each row carries its legal basis, dates and the expected effect on the Dutch delivered price.
| Measure | Product | CN/HS | Origin / destination | Rate / value | Unit | From | Expiry / review | Legal basis | Effect on NL price | Status | Source | Note |
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Scenarios, 5 and 10 years (index 2026 = 100)
Three paths per material group
Base · Carbon-tight/energy shock · Demand slump/deflation. Paths = fitted elasticities × assumed driver paths (+ priors wage 0.15, freight 0.05). Assumptions, not forecasts.
| Group | Scenario | 2031 Δ% | 2036 Δ% | EUA 2036 | TTF 2036 |
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Logistics, bulk tiers and end of life
Freight, storage and delivery tariffs
What is actually published. Crane-truck €/trip, bulk tipper €/t and cement-tanker rates are not public in the Netherlands; part-load surcharges and the new truck toll are.
| Item | Unit | Value (€) | Provider | Date | Status | Source |
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Bulk pricing tiers (observed)
Quantity breaks as sold. Finding: DIY retail shows almost no pallet discount (cement pallet = 56 × bag price); trade tiers are account-based and not public.
| Item | Unit | Price | Note | Seller | Status | Source |
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End-of-life ladder
Dismantle → sort/break/clean → reuse / recycle / downcycle / incinerate / landfill. Verified: waste tax, skip all-in prices, reclaimed vs new brick. Gate fees and processing rates are not public — they need quotes.
| Stage | Item | Unit | Value | Provider | Date | Status | Source |
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Annual volumes and demand
| Material | Flow | Year | Value | Unit | Note | Source |
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SKU index tree (phase 1: 42 products)
Unit = canonical unit; drivers = prior weights, fitted per SKU once scraped prices are in (scrapers run on your machine).
| Category | Product | Unit | NACE | Hypothesis | Drivers (prior) | Note |
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Sources and export
Every figure traces to a source via the Sources panel (click any number). Below: the register and CSV export per table.
| Group | ID | Titel | Vanaf | Freq | Toegang | Geverifieerd | URL |
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Glossary
Abbreviations and terms used on this page.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| PPI | Producer price index: prices at the factory gate (ex works), excluding VAT, as reported by producers to CBS/Eurostat. Index, base year = 100. |
| NACE / SBI | EU (NACE) and Dutch (SBI) industry classification. C23 = non-metallic mineral products (cement, concrete, brick, glass, gypsum, mineral wool); C2351 cement; C2361 concrete products; C2332 bricks & roof tiles; C241 basic iron & steel; C161 sawmilling; C222 plastic products; C231 glass. SBI 4673 = wholesale of building materials; SBI 4752 = DIY retail; SBI 41/43 = construction. |
| TTF | Title Transfer Facility: the Dutch natural-gas trading hub; the European benchmark gas price, in €/MWh. |
| EUA | EU Allowance: one tonne of CO₂ emission right under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Price in €/t. |
| ETS / ETS2 | EU Emissions Trading System for industry and power (ETS1) and, from 2028, a separate system for buildings and road-transport fuels (ETS2). |
| CBAM | Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: from 2026 importers of cement, steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen buy certificates priced on the EUA so imports carry the same carbon cost. |
| Free allocation | Share of a producer's emissions covered by allowances received free of charge; phased out for CBAM sectors between 2026 and 2034 under current law. |
| NL CO₂ levy (CO₂-heffing industrie) | Dutch national carbon levy on industry; effective rate = tariff minus the EUA price, so it only bites when EUA trades below the tariff. |
| EXW / DAP | Incoterms. EXW (ex works): price at the plant gate, buyer arranges transport. DAP (delivered at place): price delivered to site or yard, seller arranges transport. |
| Counter price | Price a consumer pays at a DIY store, including VAT (Dutch btw). |
| Gross margin vs markup | Gross margin = (selling price − purchase price) / selling price. Markup = the same difference / purchase price. A gross margin m equals a markup of m / (1 − m). |
| EBITDA / EBIT / operating result | Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation / earnings before interest and tax / CBS bedrijfsresultaat (includes owner-operator income for small firms). |
| Heavy-side | Bulk, low-value-per-tonne materials (cement, sand, gravel, blocks, concrete) where freight is a large share of price; contrasted with light-side or specialty products. |
| AK / W&R / staartkosten | Dutch contractor cost conventions: AK (algemene kosten) = general overhead; W&R (winst en risico) = profit and risk; staartkosten = the overhead and profit layers applied on top of direct cost. |
| Elasticity | Percentage change in price for a one-percent change in a driver, holding other drivers fixed; estimated here as the coefficient in a log-log regression. |
| log-OLS | Ordinary least squares regression on natural logarithms of price and drivers, so coefficients read as elasticities. |
| R² | Share of the variance in the series explained by the model (in-sample). |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error of out-of-sample forecasts; the backtest trains on data through December of the year before the test window. |
| Backtest / walk-forward | Fitting on an earlier period and scoring on a later one the model has not seen. |
| Seasonal factor | Average deviation from a twelve-month centred moving-average trend, by calendar month, in percent. |
| Bouwvak | The Dutch construction industry's collective summer holiday, three to four weeks in July–August, staggered by region. |
| Commodity / semi / unique | Classification used in the SKU tree: commodity = interchangeable across sellers and feedstock-driven (low cross-seller price dispersion, high share explained by inputs); unique = brand- or spec-driven; semi = in between. |
| SKU | Stock-keeping unit: one specific product at one specification (e.g. OSB/3 18 mm 2440×1220). |
| WF | Waalformaat: the standard Dutch brick format (approx. 210×100×50 mm); brick volumes are counted in millions of WF-equivalents. |
| CEM I / CEM III | Cement types under EN 197-1: CEM I = Portland cement (high clinker share); CEM III = blast-furnace slag cement (low clinker, lower carbon), the dominant type in the Netherlands. |
| Clinker | The intermediate product of cement kilns; the carbon-intensive step. The Netherlands has had no clinker kiln since 2019 and imports clinker and cement. |
| Benchmark (ETS) | Emission intensity of the best-performing installations in a sector, in tonnes CO₂ per tonne of product; sets the free-allocation level. |
| MPG / NMD | Milieuprestatie gebouwen (environmental performance of buildings) and the Nationale Milieudatabase that supplies it; the shadow price for CO₂ used in Dutch building regulation. |
| BSA | Bouw- en sloopafval: construction and demolition waste. |
| Bbk | Besluit bodemkwaliteit: Dutch soil-quality decree; determines whether a mineral waste fraction may be applied as a construction material. |
| COROP | Dutch statistical regions (40), between province and municipality; intended level for regional pricing once postcode-level data is scraped. |
| Tipper / tanker / flatbed / HIAB | Truck types: tipper (kipper) for bulk aggregates, tanker for bulk cement, flatbed for pallets, HIAB (kraanwagen) with on-board crane for site delivery. |
| Big bag / pallet / full load | Standard batch sizes: big bag about one cubic metre of sand; a pallet of cement is fifty-six bags of twenty-five kilograms; a full load is one truck. |
| Reuse / upcycle / recycle / downcycle | End-of-life outlets in descending value: reuse as is; upcycle into a higher-value product; recycle into the same material; downcycle into a lower-grade use such as road foundation; then incineration or landfill. |
| Hibin / EIB / KNB / Cembureau / ERMCO | Dutch building-materials wholesale association; Dutch construction economics institute; Dutch brick-industry association; European cement association; European ready-mix concrete organisation. |